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Flight Passenger-Count Prediction

A scikit-learn regression model that predicts passenger counts per flight from operational flight features.

Regression · Demand model

Turkish Airlines Machine Learning & Demand Forecasting
Machine Learning Regression Aviation scikit-learn Forecasting Python
Passenger-Count Prediction

The challenge

Good planning depends on knowing how many passengers a given flight is likely to carry, and estimating that from experience alone is unreliable. Get it wrong and the airline either wastes capacity or turns demand away - both expensive at scale.

Turkish Airlines needed a data-driven passenger-demand estimate derived from the characteristics of each flight, rather than a rough manual guess.

The approach

I built a regression model using Python and scikit-learn that predicts flight passenger counts from a range of flight features. I prepared and engineered the input features, trained and evaluated regression models, and tuned the pipeline so its predictions generalised to new flights.

The result gives planning teams a quantitative, data-driven demand estimate to work from - a concrete passenger-count prediction per flight instead of an experience-based guess.

The outcome

Results that moved the needle.

Regression

Demand model

Predicts passenger counts per flight from flight features

scikit-learn

Built with Python

Feature engineering, training and evaluation pipeline

Data-driven

Planning input

Quantitative demand estimate replacing manual guesswork

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